Goldman Sachs said it expects key OPEC member states and Russia to increase output by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of 2018, but the increase will shrink among the rest of the participants to make output rise by only 0.45 million bpd from the second quarter of 2018.
The World Bank expects demand growth to continue above average forecast of 1.75 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018. The average supply spike in the oil markets in the second quarter of 2019 is also expected to be in line with previous estimates. A rise in prices is still expected in the coming months, with the possibility of exceeding expectations for the price of $75 a barrel for Brent crude at the end of the year. The current forecast for the production growth of OPEC and Russia currently sits at -0.3 million barrels per day on an annual basis in 2018, and -0.1 million barrels per day in 2019.
Goldman Sachs’ estimate of the global supply and demand balance continues to point to further declines in inventories and higher oil prices in the second half of 2018. The output of key members of OPEC and Russia is expected to increase by about 1 million bpd by the end of the year, and half a million bpd in the first half of 2018. In return for increased delays in Venezuela and Iran, oil production would rise 1.3 million bpd in 2018, but the rate would slow to 1.1 million bpd in 2019, they claimed.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Saturday that Russia and Saudi Arabia would ask the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output by 1.5 million bpd in the third quarter of this year. “Moscow and Riyadh are proposing an increase in production during the third quarter of 1.5 million barrels per day and monitoring the market situation thereafter,” the Russian minister said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Novak met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Thursday before the World Cup opening match in Moscow. Since the beginning of 2017, an agreement has been implemented to limit the production of OPEC and its partners, which has helped raise crude prices. But some parties fear the prices will drop due to lower Venezuelan production and US sanctions on Iran.
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