Oil markets remain positively shocked after the American Petroleum Institute announced yesterday that US inventories rose by about 3.66 million for the week ending Aug. 10, shortly followed by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reporting that the build was actually significantly bigger at 6.8 million barrels.
This comes after economic analysts had forecast a 1.7 million barrel decline in inventories for the same period.
According to the Energy Information Administration, at 414.2 million barrels, US crude inventories are slightly above the five-year average this season.
In gasoline, stocks fell by 700,000 barrels last week, compared to 2.9 million barrels in the previous week, but slightly higher than the seasonal average. The average gasoline production was 10.2 million barrels per day, from 9.9 million barrels per day last week.
Meanwhile, distillate stocks grew by 3.6 million barrels last week, after a build of 1.2 million barrels in the previous week with an average production of 5.3 million barrels per day, up by 100,000 barrels per day over the previous week.
At the same time, markets are concerned about the oil supply from Venezuela and getting ready for the final round of US sanctions against Iran, targeted on the country’s oil industry.
Some oil market participants are preparing for a rise in oil prices by about $150 or even $200, according to economic analysts yesterday evening. They expect the price of oil to jump to $150 a barrel two months ahead of the Iran sanctions, as crude inventories shrink by a million bpd or more. Some participants even believe it might eventually result in a loss of more than 2 million barrels a day.
Senior market analysts believe that by November 4, markets will lose between 1.3 and 1.4 million barrels (of production) per day, a very large figure. This view is based on the idea that the United States will allow some temporary exceptions, and eventually we could see losses from Iran exceeding 2 million barrels per day.
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