Oil Prices Rise Amid Venezuela Turmoil and Saudi support for OPEC cuts

Oil prices rose on Tuesday when the Venezuelan opposition leader called on the military to support the end of Nicolas Maduro’s rule, after Saudi Arabia said the deal between producers to cut production could extend beyond June 2019.

The government immediately rejected any reference to the military insurgency in Venezuela, an OPEC member whose oil exports have been hit by US sanctions and the economic crisis.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih made the remarks despite pressure from US President Donald Trump to raise production to offset the shortfall in supplies expected from tougher US sanctions against Iran.

According to oil market analysts, “there was an important growth even without Venezuela because of Faleh’s comments.”

Brent crude futures were up 84 cents, or 1.2 percent, at $72.88 a barrel. US WTI crude futures rose 55 cents, or nearly 1 percent, to $64.05 a barrel.

Al-Falih’s comments to the Russian news agency RIA indicate that Saudi Arabia wants to maintain some form of production reduction despite Trump’s request.

A Reuters survey of OPEC oil supplies showed that the group’s production hit its lowest level in four years in April at 30.23 million barrels per day due to the involuntary declines in Iran and Venezuela and the continued control of Saudi production. The current deal includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other allies led by Russia about 1.2 million barrels per day until the end of June.

OPEC and its allies will meet in Vienna on June 25 and 26 to decide on next steps.

Brent hit a six-month high above $75 last week as global markets tightened amid US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela as well as Russian export problems from a polluted pipeline.

Belarus said on Tuesday it will take months to restore clean oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline after Western oil consumers stopped imports of Urals crude due to pollution. Druzhba can pump up to 1 million barrels per day, or 1% of global demand for crude.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that “Iranian oil production will fall to 1.9 million barrels per day in the second half of 2006 from 3.6 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2008 with the start of US sanctions and eventually expire.”

Despite this, the bank said it expected “a nearly balanced market in 2019” as OPEC and the United States rise.

French bank BNP Paribas said it expected oil prices to rise in the near term as crude oil producers “are tightening the market in the face of unplanned interruptions and flexible demand for oil.”

BNP said it expected crude oil prices to rise until the third quarter of 2019, adding that prices “would then begin to become vulnerable to a sharp rise in US exports of light crude oil thanks to the expansion of the pipeline and the expansion of the final capacity.”

Prices felt downward pressure earlier on Tuesday after China’s factory activity data affected the financial markets, including crude oil futures, indicating that Asia’s largest economy is still struggling to regain momentum.

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