Oil prices remained unchanged at the end of last week, especially on Friday. During the week, the markets digested the large patterns that took place, making the benchmark crude lose on a weekly basis.
Brent crude fell 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, to trade at $74.25 a barrel, after rising $1.05 a barrel on Wednesday, recovering from a record low of $72.67 a barrel. US WTI crude rose 5 cents, to trade at $70.38 a barrel, after falling for most of the trading session, and crude falling more than 4 percent during the week.
On Wednesday, crude suffered heavy losses as traders focused on Libya’s return to the market amid fears of a Sino-US trade war. However, warnings about excess capacity from the International Energy Agency raised the price of Brent, helping to offset some of the losses.
US investment bank JPMorgan increased its oil price forecast on Friday, but cut its estimate of global demand growth for the current year amid growing uncertainty regarding the international trade. Brent crude will average $70 per barrel in 2018 and 2019, which is higher than previous estimates of $65 and $60 per barrel respectively. According to a group of European equity researchers, current budgetary constraints and the impact of sanctions may mean that oil prices will remain high in the short term.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed in June to modest increases in oil production starting this July. However, it is not clear whether these increases will be effective, as the United States prepares to re-impose sanctions on Iran in November, an important source of oil. JPMorgan said oil prices would be curbed by increased OPEC and US crude oil production capacity, on the back of modest demand growth in 2018-2019.
The investment bank lowered its demand growth forecast for 2018 to 1.2 million barrels per day, from 1.4 million barrels in its previous estimates, but slightly increased its forecast for 2019, to 1.1 million barrels per day from previous expectations of 1 million. “The global macroeconomic outlook, weak emerging market currencies, the impact of the recent rise in oil prices, the impact of sanctions on Iran and the growing trade fog are all potential risks to growth in oil demand,” the bank said. JPMorgan also predicted that global crude supply growth would remain strong despite short-term output disruptions, and that OPEC oil production in 2018 would reach 32.9 million bpd.
OPEC production is expected to grow by 2.2 million bpd in 2018 and 1.7 million bpd in 2019, driven largely by the United States, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan and Brazil. The volatility in oil markets this year will probably continue, predicting that the prices will continue to range widely between $50 and $80 per barrel.
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