Oil has been one of the most important energy sources throughout history and is also a source of highly credible investment income.
The International Energy Agency said that the world’s oil markets will show a surplus in the first half of 2018, following the commitment of OPEC and the participants in the agreement to keep cuts in oil production next year.
With the increase in US crude supplies, total supply growth could exceed demand in the first half of 2018, which could reach a surplus of 200,000 barrels per day before turning into a deficit of 200,000 bpd in the second half.
The expectations of producers with the continued decline in supplies in 2018 at the same rate of 500 thousand barrels per day, which we saw in 2017 will not be achieved. The Energy Agency kept its forecast that the world oil demand growth will remain unchanged for 2017 at 1.5 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.6%, and for 2018 at 1.3 million barrels per day, equivalent to a 1.3% increase.
Production from outside OPEC is expected to rise by 600,000 bpd this year and 1.6 million barrels per day will increase the next exhaust.
The Energy Agency last month expected non-OPEC production to increase by 1.3 million bpd in 2018, but the pace of growth in US shale oil production pushed it to raise its forecast for total US production growth to 870,000 bpd next year.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other countries, including Russia last month, extended the agreement to reduce production of 1.8 million barrels per day to cover the entire 2018 for the disposal of global supplies and support crude prices. The International Energy Agency said that commercial oil inventories in OECD countries fell by 40.3 million barrels in October to 2.94 billion barrels, the lowest level since July 2015, and 111 million barrels above the five-year average of OPEC’s target for supplies.
The agency estimates the demand for OPEC crude oil in 2018 will average 32.5 million barrels per day (bpd), with nearly 100,000 bpd more than its average of about 32.4 million bpd since the beginning of the year, indicating a steady decline in supplies. But the pace of increased global supplies led by the United States means supplies will rise early next year as total oil production is expected to grow by 1.1 million bpd in 2018.
The products of OPEC and Russia is expected to rise by 515,000 bpd in the second half of 2018 as stock levels return to normal by next summer due to rising demand. Oil markets are negatively affected by the rise in drilling activity in the United States, which predicts another increase in US production.
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